Since 2007, the trend of China's economic operation showed four phases: sharplyfrom its 2007 high too fast to the international financial crisis, then turned to effectively deal with the impact of the international financial crisis of restorative rebound sharply,and entered a new round of moderate growth interval. Then, in 2011 and the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period of China's economy will show how the trend? Specific analysis,may have the following characteristics.

From the economic cycle fluctuations in the trend, in 2011 and the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period of China's economy will be in the new round of periodic moderate growth interval operation

Since the establishment of the new China, begin from 1953, entered the industrialization process of large-scale economic construction to 2009, the rate of economic growth (GDP growth) fluctuations experienced a total of 10 cycle in 2010,and entered a new round of eleventh wheel cycle.

Before the 8 round of economic cycle, can be summarized as "2+3=5" period, namely the period length is generally 5 years, the rising period is very short, usually only one or two years, then the adjustment period fell often for about 3 years, the overallperformance as a "short cycle". The ninth round of economic cycle length was extended to 9 years, the tenth round of economic cycle but also extended to 10 years,the two wheeled cycle is extended to an "intermediate cycle". The ninth round of economic cycle for the "2+7=9" period, namely the rising period and before the 8round of cycle, only a short period of two years, but the drop period is relatively stable, the annual average of 1 percentage point drop, fall steadily for 7 years, theperiod of 9 years. Good track tenth round of economic cycle out of a "8+2=10",namely the rise period to 8 years, from 2000 to 2007, the growth rate of the economythe continuous increase in the channel 8% to 14% in the. This is since theestablishment of China never had the longest upward trajectory. But by 2007, some partial fast economic growth. In 2008, the superposition effect of the domesticeconomic restructuring and the impact of the financial crisis, the economic growth ratedeclined from 14.2% in 2007 to 9.6% years, a 4.6 percentage point drop, drop themomentum is fierce. In coping with the international financial crisis, China adopted a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the implementation of the "package", to 2009 after the second quarter economic growth effectively curb therapid decline in the situation, the first in the world to achieve economic recovery of the overall. In 2009, the annual economic growth rate of 9.2%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous year only. In 2010, the economic growth rate rose to 10.3%,higher than in 2009, and entered a new round of eleventh round of economic cycle. Ifthe macroeconomic regulation and control well, the eleventh round of economic cycleis likely to continue in ninth, the length of the tenth round of the economic cycle, out of a 10 years of "intermediate cycle". Look at it this way, in 2011 and the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period of China's economy is likely to run a modest growth in the newround of periodic interval. (see Figure 1)

From the base of annual economic growth potential, in 2011 and the "Twelfth Five Year" period of high starting point, little space to continue to accelerate the rise.Macro-control focus is to make the economy stable, mainly to prevent the economy from overheating

In 2010 China's economic growth rate of 10.3%, higher potential, "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period little space to continue to accelerate the rise. Macro-control focus is to make the economy stable, prevent all borrow "1025" start to the year blind work fast,preventing the leadership transition machine borrow all "political project", prevent theeconomy overheating, trying to keep the national economy running smoothly inmoderate growth interval. To this end, in 2011 and the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, the macro-control first of all to make the economic growth rate from coping with the international financial crisis of restorative rebound sharply to moderate growth interval steady drop.

Enter after 2011, this is a normal, stable down process was interpreted as some people of Chinese and foreign Chinese economy is stagnant, or face the risk of stagflation, or into a "hard landing", the economic growth rate may drop to below 8%.The interpretation is not conform to reality. Said China economy already in or may bethe main basis of stagflation is the two indicators: one is China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell nearly two consecutive months; two is the above scale industrial added value months year-on-year growth rate in April than in March fell by 1.4 percentage points. Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, in the 27 months to 2011 2009 March May he had several times the small fluctuations in the range of 51% to 56%, but the continuous at the critical point (50%) above theexpansion interval. In real economic life, because of the influence of various factors,the economic operation process can not be straight up,